10/10/2026 DAILY INTELLIGENCE LOG
STRUCTURE DEFENCE
WILDFIRE RESILIENCE
BRITISH COLUMBIA & ALBERTA
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2026
Morning Intelligence Review
Here’s what we know.
Here’s what we’re watching.
Here’s why it matters.
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STRUCTURE DEFENCE TAKEAWAY
The most significant wildfire-related situation remains the aftermath of Saturday’s deadly fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright in Alberta.
Four Canadian Armed Forces members lost their lives, and 39 others were injured when fire spread rapidly during military training on October 17.
The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed on October 19 that a thorough investigation is underway.
The precise circumstances surrounding the ignition and subsequent fire behaviour remain under investigation.
The Municipal District of Wainwright’s latest verified update classified the wildfire as BEING HELD.
A newer fire classification or confirmed extinguishment was not available during this morning’s review.
Elsewhere in Alberta, wildfire RWF075 near Rocky Mountain House remains an important incident requiring follow-up.
Its latest verified classification is also BEING HELD, according to Alberta Wildfire’s October 17 evening bulletin.
The immediate weather picture has improved considerably.
Cooler temperatures, freezing overnight conditions and substantially lighter winds are now being observed across portions of Alberta.
However, a return to warmer conditions is forecast for Wednesday.
In British Columbia, the Southern Interior is experiencing cold mornings, strong overnight humidity recovery and relatively mild afternoons.
These conditions are generally more favourable than the strong-wind environment experienced over the weekend.
The longer-term concern remains underlying drought across portions of Interior B.C.
The important distinction today is between:
ACTIVE INCIDENT CONSEQUENCES
SHORT-TERM FIRE WEATHER
LONGER-TERM LANDSCAPE CONDITIONS
Each requires a different type of attention.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
CFB WAINWRIGHT
Elevated Concern — Incident Recovery and Investigation
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE
Developing Trend — Active Incident Follow-Up
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALBERTA
Normal Observation — Improved Short-Term Conditions
CALGARY / FOOTHILLS
Developing Trend — Midweek Warming
SOUTHERN INTERIOR B.C.
Normal Observation — Autumn Conditions
THOMPSON / OKANAGAN / CARIBOO
Developing Trend — Persistent Drought
BRADLEY CREEK / BALD RANGE
Continuing Emergency and Recovery Attention
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SIGNIFICANT-INCIDENT SCAN
ALBERTA — CFB WAINWRIGHT
Status: ELEVATED OPERATIONAL ATTENTION
Here’s what we know.
On October 17, a fire developed during military training at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright.
Strong winds contributed to rapid fire growth.
The fire overtook an area occupied by military personnel.
The Canadian Armed Forces confirmed:
FOUR FATALITIES
39 INJURED PERSONNEL
The four members who died were:
• Sergeant Morgan Wong
• Private Shaun Farrell
• Private Aidan Goulding
• Private Hayden Lykkemark
Our thoughts remain with their families, colleagues and everyone affected.
INVESTIGATION
On October 19, Canadian Armed Forces leadership confirmed that the circumstances surrounding the incident are being thoroughly investigated.
The investigation is expected to examine the events leading to the fire and its consequences.
No final cause has been established.
It would be premature to assign responsibility or draw conclusions about the decisions made before the incident.
WILDFIRE STATUS
The Municipal District of Wainwright’s latest verified update reported that the wildfire was BEING HELD.
Fire watch operations were continuing.
Residents were instructed to avoid the incident area and keep roads clear for emergency personnel.
No newer official fire size, classification or extinguishment confirmation was independently verified.
Those details are therefore not being presented as current October 20 measurements.
COMMUNITY EXPOSURE
The fire extended beyond the military training area.
Municipal emergency responders worked to protect residents, property and critical infrastructure.
Alberta Emergency Alert currently reports no active emergency alerts.
This does not replace instructions issued directly by local authorities.
ROAD ACCESS
No current wildfire-related provincial highway closure was independently verified.
The municipality’s instruction to avoid the incident area remains the latest verified local access guidance.
Here’s what we’re watching.
• Updated fire classification
• Confirmed extinguishment
• Residual hotspots
• Infrastructure damage
• Property and road access
• Recovery operations
• Official investigation findings
Here’s why it matters.
The Wainwright tragedy illustrates that wildfire consequences cannot be measured by hectares burned alone.
The location of people and infrastructure, available escape routes, fire behaviour and the speed at which conditions change are critical considerations.
The full operational circumstances remain under investigation.
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ALBERTA — ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE
Status: ACTIVE INCIDENT FOLLOW-UP
RWF075
Here’s what we know.
RWF075 was discovered October 17 during a period of strong winds and elevated wildfire danger.
The wildfire was initially classified:
OUT OF CONTROL.
By 5:00 p.m. October 17, Alberta Wildfire reported an improvement to:
BEING HELD.
Firefighters and helicopters remained engaged in suppression operations.
The October 17 evening bulletin is the latest individual incident update verified for this report.
No newer classification or current fire size was independently confirmed.
The October 17 bulletin also reported several additional wildfire starts during the wind event.
Rapid reporting and firefighter response helped limit their growth.
No complete updated list of those individual incidents was available in the accessible official bulletins.
REGIONAL FIRE DANGER
The latest published assessment, dated October 17, identified:
HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER.
This followed an earlier VERY HIGH classification.
The October 17 rating is not being presented as a newly verified October 20 danger assessment.
Here’s what we’re watching.
• RWF075 suppression progress
• Updated incident classification
• Current fire size
• Additional wildfire starts
• Fine-fuel moisture
• Renewed wind
• Updated wildfire-danger ratings
Here’s why it matters.
The fire environment has improved since Saturday.
However, cooler weather does not automatically extinguish existing wildfires.
Residual heat can remain in larger fuels and organic material.
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BRITISH COLUMBIA
PROVINCIAL SIGNIFICANT-INCIDENT SCAN
Status: CONTINUING EMERGENCY AND RECOVERY ATTENTION
Here’s what we know.
EmergencyInfoBC continues to display five wildfire-related emergency listings.
These involve:
• Okanagan Indian Band
• District of Summerland
• Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen
• Boothroyd Indian Band
• Shxw’ow’hamel First Nation
No newly posted October 20 wildfire evacuation escalation was identified in the provincial listing.
However, these entries involve different circumstances.
Some concern Evacuation Orders or Alerts.
Others concern restricted access and recovery.
The latest publication dates range from August through October 2.
These dates do not establish that every property-level boundary remains unchanged.
Residents should follow the responsible First Nation or local government.
WILDFIRES OF NOTE
The complete current BC Wildfire Service Wildfires of Note and Out of Control inventory could not be independently verified through the accessible live dashboard.
Accordingly, this report does not publish:
• An unverified provincial active-fire count
• An unverified Out of Control count
• Unconfirmed wildfire sizes
• Unverified evacuation totals
No newly verified major wildfire-related structure exposure or critical-infrastructure emergency was identified in the official notices reviewed.
This is not confirmation that every significant wildfire in British Columbia is inactive.
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BRADLEY CREEK
OKANAGAN INDIAN BAND
Status: CONTINUING EMERGENCY ATTENTION
EmergencyInfoBC continues to identify an Evacuation Order and Evacuation Alerts associated with the Bradley Creek wildfire.
The latest provincial listing update is dated October 2.
The current property-level boundaries were not independently reconfirmed through a live emergency map.
Affected residents should follow Okanagan Indian Band instructions.
Recovery considerations include:
• Property access
• Fire-damaged trees
• Infrastructure restoration
• Debris management
• Damaged vegetation
• Rebuilding
These concerns remain important even when active wildfire behaviour decreases.
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BALD RANGE
SUMMERLAND / FAULDER
Status: CONTINUING RECOVERY ATTENTION
EmergencyInfoBC continues to identify a Prohibit Entry Order issued by the District of Summerland.
The provincial listing was last updated September 30.
The Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen also maintains wildfire-related emergency information.
Current property-level restrictions should be confirmed with the responsible local authority.
No new October 20 boundary change was independently verified.
ROAD ACCESS
Previously published wildfire recovery information identified transportation impacts in the Summerland and Faulder area.
However, a current live confirmation of every affected road was not available.
Older road closures or reopening announcements are not being carried forward as current conditions.
Here’s why it matters.
Wildfire recovery can involve hazards unrelated to active flames.
These include:
• Danger trees
• Unstable slopes
• Erosion
• Changed drainage
• Damaged roads
• Damaged utilities
• Restricted property access
Autumn precipitation and freezing conditions can introduce additional challenges.
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TODAY’S CONDITIONS
SOUTHERN INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA
Status: NORMAL OBSERVATION
Here’s what we know.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s October 20 observations indicate cold mornings and strong overnight humidity recovery across the Southern Interior.
KAMLOOPS
8:00 a.m. observation:
Temperature: -0.3°C
Relative humidity: 88%
Wind: North at 2 km/h
Today’s forecast:
Sunny.
High approximately 15°C.
Wednesday:
Mainly sunny.
High approximately 14°C.
KELOWNA
8:00 a.m. observation:
Temperature: -2.3°C
Relative humidity: 98%
Wind: Calm.
Today’s forecast:
Sunny.
High approximately 14°C.
Northerly wind developing near 20 km/h around midday.
Wednesday:
Mainly sunny.
High approximately 14°C.
These conditions are substantially different from Saturday’s strong-wind event.
No extreme heat or consecutive days above 30°C are indicated.
The immediate weather environment is relatively favourable.
However, several predominantly dry afternoons are forecast.
Here’s what we’re watching.
• Afternoon humidity
• Fine-fuel moisture
• Actual rainfall
• Consecutive dry days
• Cured grass
• Wind
• New wildfire starts
Here’s why it matters.
Cold mornings and high relative humidity can improve surface-fuel conditions.
However, fine fuels may dry again during sunny afternoons.
The degree of drying depends on local conditions.
Temperature and humidity observations alone do not establish wildfire danger at every property.
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ALBERTA — CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS
Status: NORMAL OBSERVATION WITH ACTIVE INCIDENT FOLLOW-UP
Here’s what we know.
The immediate weather environment has improved considerably from Saturday.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE
At 3:00 a.m.:
Temperature: -5.4°C
Relative humidity: 86%
Wind: North-northwest at 4 km/h.
Today’s forecast:
Sunny.
High approximately 12°C.
Wednesday:
Sunny.
High approximately 13°C.
These observations indicate much calmer conditions than those experienced during the October 17 wildfire starts.
However, the weather improvement should not be confused with confirmed extinguishment of RWF075.
EDSON
The latest official forest-area wildfire bulletin remains dated October 16.
That bulletin identified:
MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER.
Wind and dead vegetation were the principal concerns at that time.
A newer regional classification was not independently verified.
WHITECOURT
The latest official forest-area bulletin also remains dated October 16.
That assessment identified:
LOW WILDFIRE DANGER.
The agency warned that strong wind could still support ignition and spread.
Those wind forecasts applied to the previous weekend and are not being carried forward as today’s conditions.
Here’s why it matters.
Wildfire danger and active wildfire status are separate measurements.
Improved weather can reduce the potential for new starts and rapid spread.
Existing wildfires must still be assessed individually.
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ALBERTA — CALGARY / FOOTHILLS
Status: DEVELOPING MIDWEEK WARMING
Here’s what we know.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s October 20 forecast indicates a return to warmer conditions after a cold morning.
CALGARY
5:00 a.m. observation:
Temperature approximately -1°C.
Relative humidity approximately 68%.
Light southerly wind.
TODAY
Mainly sunny.
High approximately 12°C.
WEDNESDAY
Sunny.
High approximately 19°C.
THURSDAY
Sunny.
High approximately 16°C.
FRIDAY
Rain forecast.
High approximately 6°C.
This represents a short period of warming followed by another substantial cooling trend.
The latest verified Calgary Forest Area wildfire-danger bulletin remains dated October 14.
That assessment was MODERATE.
A newer regional classification was not independently confirmed.
Here’s what we’re watching.
• Afternoon humidity
• Cured grass
• Wind
• New human-caused ignitions
• Actual precipitation
• Updated wildfire-danger ratings
Here’s why it matters.
Dormant grass can remain combustible during autumn.
Warmer weather can increase drying opportunities.
However, temperature alone does not establish elevated wildfire danger.
Fuel moisture and wind remain important.
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DROUGHT AND DEEP-FUEL CONDITIONS
Status: DEVELOPING LONG-TERM CONCERN
Here’s what we know.
The BC Wildfire Service Fall 2026 Seasonal Outlook identifies persistent drought across portions of Interior British Columbia.
Regions of concern include:
• Thompson
• Okanagan
• Cariboo
• Kootenays
• Northeast B.C.
The September Drought Code analysis identified above-normal dryness in deeper organic forest-floor material and larger dead woody fuels.
This remains important seasonal context.
However, the September analysis is not a current October 20 Drought Code measurement.
No representative current station-level Drought Code dataset was verified for publication this morning.
We are therefore not assigning numerical regional values for:
• Drought Code
• Fine Fuel Moisture Code
• Buildup Index
The BC Wildfire Service also identifies the possibility that existing drought conditions may persist through winter.
This is a seasonal concern, not a prediction of next year’s wildfire activity.
Here’s what we’re watching.
• Actual autumn precipitation
• Deep-fuel moisture
• Station-level Drought Code
• Fine Fuel Moisture Code
• Buildup Index
• Groundwater
• Streamflow
• Early snowpack development
Here’s why it matters.
Fine fuels generally respond more quickly to precipitation.
Deep organic material and larger woody fuels may recover more slowly.
The moisture accumulated through autumn and winter will influence the conditions entering spring 2027.
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PLANNED FIRE AND SMOKE
Status: DEVELOPING SEASONAL ACTIVITY
BRITISH COLUMBIA — SIWASH
The BC Wildfire Service announced a prescribed burn October 16.
Location:
Approximately 100 kilometres west of Williams Lake.
The treatment area is west of Yunesit’in and southwest of Alexis Creek.
Planned area:
Approximately 112 hectares.
Announced burning window:
October 18–31.
The project is intended to support forest health and reduce mistletoe infestation.
Smoke and flames may be visible from Highway 20.
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
The 112-hectare figure is the planned treatment area.
It is not an uncontrolled wildfire size.
The announced burning window does not confirm ignition.
Actual ignition was not independently verified for today’s report.
ALBERTA — HINTON
Alberta Wildfire’s October 16 bulletin confirmed hazard-reduction burning at the RC Flyer fields northeast of Hinton.
The project involves Alberta Wildfire and local fire departments.
Its purpose is to remove accumulated dry grass and other combustible vegetation.
Firefighters are expected to patrol the area and extinguish remaining hotspots.
Here’s why it matters.
Autumn is an important period for planned fuel-management operations.
Visible smoke may originate from intentional burning rather than a new uncontrolled wildfire.
However, unexplained smoke should still be reported.
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RESTRICTIONS AND HUMAN ACTIVITY
Status: NORMAL OBSERVATION
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Previously announced changes permitted Category 2 and Category 3 open burning in portions of the Interior beginning earlier this month.
However, current permissions vary by jurisdiction.
Local governments and First Nations may maintain separate restrictions.
A complete current province-wide prohibition inventory was not independently verified.
No blanket statement that all open burning is permitted is being made.
ALBERTA
Fire permits remain required for most outdoor burning within Alberta’s Forest Protection Area through October 31.
Campfires are generally exempt from the permit requirement where otherwise permitted.
Municipal restrictions may differ.
The current Alberta Fire Bans map should be checked before ignition.
HUMAN ACTIVITY
Important late-season ignition concerns include:
• Debris burning
• Agricultural machinery
• Off-highway vehicles
• Campfires
• Hot exhaust systems
• Powerline contact
• Equipment malfunction
• Activities involving sparks or heat
Here’s why it matters.
Legal permission to burn does not mean weather conditions are suitable.
Outdoor burning should only occur when permitted and when adequate controls are available.
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LIGHTNING AND HOLDOVER FIRE
Status: NORMAL OBSERVATION
No newly verified significant lightning-driven wildfire escalation was identified in the official information reviewed.
However, current regional lightning totals were not independently verified.
The absence of a newly identified lightning incident is not confirmation that no lightning occurred.
Residual heat remains a consideration in previously burned areas.
Heat may persist in:
• Roots
• Duff
• Organic soils
• Large woody debris
• Existing wildfire perimeters
• Burn piles
Rain, frost and light snowfall do not necessarily extinguish underground heat.
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WHAT CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY
CFB WAINWRIGHT
NEW OFFICIAL INVESTIGATION STATEMENT
On October 19, Canadian Armed Forces leadership confirmed that the circumstances surrounding the tragedy are being thoroughly investigated.
Supporting affected personnel and families remains a priority.
The cause has not been established.
WAINWRIGHT FIRE STATUS
NO NEWER CLASSIFICATION VERIFIED
The latest verified municipal update remains BEING HELD.
No current fire size or extinguishment confirmation was independently obtained.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE
NO NEWER INCIDENT CLASSIFICATION VERIFIED
RWF075 remains BEING HELD under the latest verified October 17 bulletin.
No newer individual incident assessment was available.
ALBERTA WEATHER
CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT
Today’s observations confirm cold mornings and light winds across several western Alberta locations.
This represents a substantial improvement from Saturday’s wind event.
CALGARY
MIDWEEK WARMING FORECAST
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest forecast indicates temperatures reaching approximately 19°C Wednesday.
The potential effect on fine fuels will depend on wind and moisture conditions.
SOUTHERN INTERIOR B.C.
STRONG OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY
Kamloops and Kelowna reported high morning relative humidity and very light winds.
The immediate fire-weather environment is comparatively favourable.
EMERGENCY INFORMATION
No newly posted October 20 wildfire evacuation escalation was identified in EmergencyInfoBC.
Alberta Emergency Alert reports no active emergency alerts.
Existing B.C. emergency and recovery restrictions remain important.
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HOMEOWNER IMPLICATIONS
The current conditions provide an opportunity to focus on preparedness rather than immediate wildfire response.
AROUND HOMES
• Clean roofs and gutters.
• Remove accumulated leaves and needles.
• Clear combustible storage beneath decks.
• Maintain vegetation near structures.
• Move firewood away from buildings.
• Keep emergency access clear.
AROUND MACHINERY
• Remove vegetation from hot surfaces.
• Inspect exhaust systems.
• Maintain bearings and belts.
• Avoid parking hot equipment in cured grass.
• Keep appropriate firefighting tools available.
BEFORE OUTDOOR BURNING
• Confirm current restrictions.
• Check wind conditions.
• Establish adequate control measures.
• Keep water and tools available.
• Fully extinguish all burning material.
IN WILDFIRE RECOVERY AREAS
• Watch for danger trees.
• Avoid unstable burned slopes.
• Monitor erosion and drainage.
• Respect restricted-access areas.
• Follow local recovery instructions.
These measures improve preparedness.
They do not guarantee structure survival.
Official emergency instructions always take priority.
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SOURCES CONSULTED
• Department of National Defence
• Canadian Armed Forces
• Municipal District of Wainwright No. 61
• Alberta Wildfire
• Alberta Wildfire — Rocky Mountain House Forest Area
• Alberta Wildfire — Edson Forest Area
• Alberta Wildfire — Whitecourt Forest Area
• Alberta Wildfires of Note
• Alberta Emergency Alert
• Alberta Fire Bans
• Environment and Climate Change Canada
• BC Wildfire Service
• BC Wildfire Service Information Bulletins
• BC Wildfire Service Fall 2026 Seasonal Outlook
• EmergencyInfoBC
• DriveBC
• 511 Alberta
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WHAT WE’RE WATCHING NEXT
CFB WAINWRIGHT
The most significant operational follow-up remains the investigation and recovery.
We are watching for:
• Updated fire status
• Confirmed extinguishment
• Infrastructure damage
• Road and property access
• Recovery operations
• Official investigation findings
ROCKY MOUNTAIN HOUSE
Confirm:
• RWF075 classification
• Current fire size
• Suppression progress
• Additional wildfire starts
• Updated regional danger ratings
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALBERTA
Monitor whether improved weather conditions continue.
Particular attention goes to:
• Fine-fuel moisture
• Cured grass
• Wind
• Outdoor burning
• New human-caused ignitions
CALGARY / FOOTHILLS
Monitor the approaching midweek warming period.
The important variables are:
• Afternoon humidity
• Wind
• Grass curing
• Actual precipitation
• Updated wildfire-danger ratings
SOUTHERN INTERIOR B.C.
Monitor the effect of several dry afternoons on exposed fine fuels.
Particular attention goes to:
• Afternoon humidity
• Wind
• New wildfire starts
• Actual rainfall
• Deep-fuel moisture recovery
BRITISH COLUMBIA INCIDENT WATCH
Continue checking:
• Wildfires of Note
• Significant Out of Control fires
• Rapid growth
• Evacuation Alerts and Orders
• Newly affected communities
• First Nations jurisdictions
• Structure and infrastructure exposure
• Highway and access impacts
PLANNED FIRE
Monitor prescribed and pile-burning operations across both provinces.
Distinguish announced burning windows from confirmed ignition.
WILDFIRE RECOVERY
Continue monitoring Bradley Creek, Bald Range and other affected areas.
The principal concerns remain:
• Restricted access
• Infrastructure restoration
• Danger trees
• Burned-slope stability
• Drainage and erosion
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HERE’S WHAT WE KNOW.
The immediate fire-weather environment has improved across much of the monitored area.
However, the consequences of Saturday’s tragic fire at CFB Wainwright remain significant.
Existing wildfire incidents and recovery operations continue to require attention.
British Columbia is experiencing cooler autumn conditions, although underlying drought remains an important longer-term consideration.
HERE’S WHAT WE’RE WATCHING.
The ongoing response and investigation at Wainwright.
The status of recent Alberta wildfire starts.
The effects of midweek warming.
And the recovery of moisture across Interior British Columbia.
HERE’S WHY IT MATTERS.
Wildfire resilience is not simply about watching active fires.
It is about understanding ignition, fire behaviour, exposure, preparedness and consequences.
The quieter periods provide valuable opportunities to reduce vulnerabilities.
And the changing conditions remind us why preparedness remains important throughout the year.
Indicators describe conditions.
They are not predictions.
Official emergency instructions always take priority.
Wildfire resilience starts before wildfire arrives.
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STRUCTURE DEFENCE
WILDFIRE RESILIENCE